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Nominal PCE Yoy Percentage Change to Current Personal Savings Rate

As the PCE rate of growth compared to the previous years improves coming out of recession, folks are usually saving more to restore their family balance sheet. The Savings rate then peaks, lagging (the angle of the arrows) the improvement in PCE rate of growth year on year.

If real hourly earnings don't begin to improve, the trend since the early 1980s, the US consumer then begins to spend down savings (second chart from St. Louise FRED).

The exceptions were when inflation was very high and people felts savings were be erroded by inflation and when folks refinanced to continue to support their lifestyles.

Nominal PCE YoY percent change to current Savings Rate

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