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Comparing trends

Earlier, I described how to make relative comparisons. Use a five point scale, make a decision about a trend today and your expectation about the future. Later, you can record several years of assessments. (The graphic to the right is cycling between the first year looks and a multi-year look.)

Trends are what people are talking and writing about. They build momentum as more and more people accept that the world is going that way.

Add more detail to this simple example: for example under the line technology in the graphic, explain why the technology opportunity, say WIFI hot spot, are becoming more common and price/minutes falling.

Be cautious! We all, or at least most of us, became comfortable with the "New Economy" in 2006 - 2007 and felt that the traditional business cycle where over-capacity causes a collapse was a thing of the past. Productivity gains and technology were going to lead to ever-increasing success. Well, we were wrong. That is why you have to be cautious about the extremes.